As California approaches its gubernatorial primary on June 2, recent polling indicates a competitive race among three main candidates vying for the opportunity to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom during a crucial time for the state. Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former Biden Cabinet member, currently leads with support from 25% of likely voters.
In a close second, Republican Steve Hilton, known for his previous role as a Fox News commentator, claims 21% of the vote, while fellow Democrat Tom Steyer, a hedge fund founder turned environmental advocate, garners 19%. This poll, conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and reported by the Los Angeles Times, showcases how these three candidates have distinguished themselves from the rest of the field.
Shifts in Candidate Support
Becerra’s popularity has surged significantly since March, when he was polling at a mere 5%. At that time, he was at the bottom of the rankings but has since become the clear front-runner. Conversely, support for other candidates has faltered. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, has seen a decline of 5% and is now placed fourth, while former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s backing has fallen to just 7%.
Other Democratic candidates, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, as well as State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, remain in single digits. Mark DiCamillo, the poll director, emphasizes the uncertainty in predicting which candidates will secure the top two spots in the primary, as low voter turnout complicates forecasts.
Despite all registered voters receiving mail-in ballots, many have yet to submit theirs, prompting concerns about the potential outcome. DiCamillo noted that while the Democratic turnout appears lower compared to previous elections, there is an expectation for increased participation as the primary date approaches.
Voter Sentiment and Campaign Dynamics
The survey, conducted between May 19 and 24, reveals that Democratic voters prefer Becerra over Steyer by a margin of 11 percentage points. Among “no party preference” voters, the support is evenly split among Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer, while Hilton maintains a significant lead over Bianco among likely Republican voters.
Becerra stands out with strong backing from women and Latino voters, while Steyer finds his strongest support among Black voters. In contrast, Hilton enjoys favor among libertarians and those residing in certain regions, including Orange County and the Central Valley.
The primary race is particularly noteworthy as it lacks a traditional front-runner, a situation not witnessed for over 25 years. This unpredictability is further impacted by the decision of prominent Democrats like former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Senator Alex Padilla to abstain from running.
Recent events have heightened awareness of the gubernatorial contest. Former Congressman Eric Swalwell withdrew from the race amidst serious allegations of misconduct, while candidates like Steyer have made headlines for their record-breaking campaign funding. Steyer has reportedly contributed $212 million to his own campaign, eclipsing previous self-funding records in California.
Amid all this, the state grapples with significant issues affecting its residents, including healthcare funding cuts and concerns over rising gas prices linked to international conflicts, contributing to a worsening affordability crisis.
With the focus of voters remaining on critical issues such as cost of living, public safety, and homelessness, the upcoming primary will undoubtedly be a turning point that could shape the political landscape leading into the November general election.
